An Analysis On The Ukrainian Army Disaster At The Battle Of Ilovaisk

Tuesday, 4 November 2014





The Battle of Ilovaisk: Details of a Massacre Inside Rebel-Held Eastern Ukraine -- Lucian Kim, Newsweek



Petro Poroshenko, the former chocolate king and recently-elected president of Ukraine, stood proudly on the podium in Kiev’s Independence Square as 1,500 goose-stepping servicemen, armoured vehicles and rocket launchers passed before him. Crowds of smiling families in traditional embroidered shirts turned out to wave tiny yellow and blue Ukrainian flags in the summer sunshine. It was August 24th 2014, the anniversary of the day the country won its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.



This year Ukraine’s Independence Day carried particular symbolism, since pro-Russian separatists held eastern regions of the country. The celebrations were intended to shore up support for Poroshenko, who had won the presidency three months before as the country risked being torn further apart. Poroshenko promised the crowd imminent victory in his country’s proxy war against Russia. Crimea may have been lost without a fight, but eastern Ukraine would be different: “I am confident that the battle for Ukraine, for independence, will end in success,” he said.



Read more ....



My Comment: The repercussions of this military disaster has still not hit home for many Ukrainians ... even with all of the news reports and eyewitness accounts. When I talk with my friends in Kiev .... I am surprised to see that many of them are still in denial on the extent of what had happened .... and what (in my opinion) is even worse is that many politicians .... newly elected from recent parliamentary elections .... are now egging Ukrainian President Poroshenko to resume the conflict. This is a disaster in the making. My take is that the Battle of Ilovaisk was Russia's "Red Line" to Kiev on what Russia now expects in eastern Ukraine. If there is a resumption of the civil war .... the Russians would do exactly what they did in August .... and they will pour in the army to blunt and stop any Ukrainian offensive. Unfortunately .... for the hundreds who were killed in this battle .... these lessons have not been learned in Kiev .... and I am now deeply worried that a resumption of a full blown civil war with an even greater Russian military footprint is becoming more and more real everyday.

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