Will The Ukraine Ceasefire Hold?

East Ukraine Calm After Ceasefire, But Residents Doubt It Will Last -- Reuters

(Reuters) - A ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine appeared to be holding on Friday evening, despite some initial shelling in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.



However, many residents and combatants were skeptical that the ceasefire could last long or turn into a basis for a durable peace settlement after six months of conflict. The two sides remain far apart on the future of the region.



The ceasefire was approved by envoys from Ukraine, the separatist leadership, Russia and Europe's OSCE security watchdog meeting in Minsk as part of a peace road map that also includes an exchange of prisoners and the creation of a humanitarian corridor for refugees and aid.



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More News On Reactions To The Ukraine Ceasefire

Poroshenko Not Confident About Long-Term Ceasefire in East of Ukraine -- RIA Novosti

Obama says hopeful but skeptical of Ukraine ceasefire -- Reuters

Ukraine's Refugees in Kyiv Not Ready to Go Home -- VOA

Truce in Ukraine Spawns Hope, Doubt in West -- WSJ

Ukraine's uneasy ceasefire hangs in the balance -- The Telegraph



My Comment: President Obama is not optimistic that the ceasefire will hold. Ukrainian President Poroshenko is not confident about a long term ceasefire taking hold in eastern Ukraine. The pro-separatist leaders are expecting the worse. The local civilian populations have doubts that it will last. And the refugees .... many (if not all of them) are not rushing to get back home. This does not instill confidence in me that this ceasefire will hold. I am already receiving reports that skirmishes are happening in regions that are controlled by Ukrainian forces in Luhansk and Donestk far away from where the rebel lines .... apparently some of the locals are not happy that with the implementation of the ceasefire they are not under the jurisdiction of the separatist government, and are expressing their disappointment. I know that Ukrainian President Poroshenko is now under heavy pressure by Ukrainian nationalists who want to continue the fight ... still believing that there is a military solution to the conflict, and now is a good time to regroup and prepare the next phase of the war.



What's my prediction .... I am hoping for peace but everyone is looking for a continuation of the war. Where this conflict will go is now solely in the hands of Ukrainian President Poroshenko .... but he has not gone out his way in the past to search for a political compromise .... and I doubt that he will now. The political talks that have been promise are (I expect) going to be a bust, and a defacto stalemate will now exist in the eastern part of the country. The next few months are going to be rough for everyone. And while I do know that Russia will go out of it's way to assist the disastrous humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine itself is now facing what will probably be a horrible winter. Gas and energy supplies have been cut off from Russia, and Western aid is just a drop in the bucket for what Ukraine now needs to restore some balance in it's economy.