Is The Syrian Government Losing The Civil War?

Wednesday, 10 September 2014




Combat Reversals Pressure Syria's Assad, Complicating Efforts Against Islamic State -- Wall Street Journal



Troubles Come as Obama Prepares to Outline Plan to Combat Militants.



AL-HURRA, Syria—Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who four months ago seemed on the verge of defeating rebel forces, is now mired in defensive battles on several fronts, complicating efforts to fight the Islamic State militant group.



In a span of weeks, the Islamic State has overrun military bases in Syria's east. In the west, the regime faces a coalition of rebels that threatens the heartland of Mr. Assad's Alawite minority and could alter the course of Syria's multi-sided civil war. Alawites, a Shiite-linked group that forms the backbone of the regime and pro-government militias, are angry over the loss of hundreds of troops last month after the Islamic State captured an air base in the northeastern province of Raqqa.



These developments come as President Barack Obama prepares to describe on Wednesday his own plan to defeat the Islamic State, a Sunni-extremist group also known as ISIS or ISIL. Mr. Assad's troubles could complicate the fight against ISIS by worsening a power vacuum that has allowed the Islamist group to thrive in Syria and neighboring Iraq.



Read more ....



More News And Analysis On The State Of The Syrian Civil War



The Syrian Civil War Is On The Verge Of Getting Even Worse -- Business Insider

Syria’s Assad thinks he is winning. He could be wrong. -- Washington Post

Rigged Cars and Barrel Bombs: Aleppo and the State of the Syrian War -- International Crisis Group

ISIS Parades Captured American Weapons as Assad, Hezbollah Routed Near Israeli Border (VIDEO) -- Al Gemeiner



My Comment: The momentum that the Assad regime had at the beginning of the year has disappeared. They have lost the eastern part of the country to the Islamic State, and they are on the brink of losing their part of the Golan Heights. In the other regions .... a stalemate is now the new normal. And while I do not expect the Assad regime to fall anytime soon .... they are certainly not winning, and if the Russians/Hezbollah/Iran should withdraw their support .... it would not surprise me if in a year (or less) they would then lose Damascus and other major parts of the country .... ending up (and making their last stand) in the Alawite enclave of Latakia on the Mediterranean coast. As to who would then replace the Syrian government .... a nightmare scenario of Jihadist groups that would make the ongoing sectarian/Jihadist/tribal disaster in Libya puny in comparison.

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