Is Russia Invading Ukraine?

Alexander Demianchuk/Reuters

Has Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Begun? -- Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast

The white-painted military trucks that have been stopped at the Ukraine border for more than a week are rolling across it. The war begins a new stage.



YEVPATORIA, Crimea — Hundreds of Russian military trucks painted white began driving across the Ukrainian border on Friday.



NATO was quick to condemn the move: “This is a blatant breach of Russia’s international commitments, including those made recently in Berlin and Geneva, and a further violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty by Russia,” said Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The move is “even more worrying,” he said, because Russian artillery attacks on and in Ukraine have gone on for several weeks.



The European Union called for Russia to revoke its decision and turn back. But once again Russia ignored international norms, procedures and agreements. The head of SBU, Ukraine’s security service, Valentin Nalyvaichenko, called the trucks’ crossing a “direct invasion” in an official statement.



The question now is whether the provocation will result in a widening war, or continue and intensify the semi-covert operations that appear to fit Moscow’s long-standing practice of carving off territories and installing client governments in parts of former Soviet republics: Transnistria in Moldova and Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.



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My Comment: The short answer is no .... Russia is not invading Ukraine. But Russia has definitely decided in the past week to increase it's support of the rebel movement in eastern Ukraine, and to put even more pressure on Ukrainian President Poroschenko to make a deal during next week's summit between him and Russian President Putin. What we are now witnessing is both sides trying to position themselves to placate their supporters, and to put pressure on the other side. But in this conflict .... it is Putin who (in my opinion) has the strongest hand. Ukrainian President Poroschenko's only hope is for more aid and assistance from the West .... and I do expect him to receive it in the weeks ahead. But the problem is winter .... Ukraine is facing a disastrous situation with inadequate fuel supplies to sustain itself during the cold winter months. Because of this .... the need to resolve the crisis in eastern Ukraine becomes more important with each passing day .... as well as the need to focus on the economic crisis now gripping the country. Unfortunately .... I do not see any interest for a reconciliation between the two sides .... and I definitely do not see this conflict ending in the next month or two.